Lay Back and Win Explained

Lay Back and Win(LBW) is the combination of 40 years of experience in Horse Racing, combined with mathematics, statistical probability and machine learning.

How does the LBW System work?

Bookmakers have a mathematical edge over the average punter, the odds you are given do not directly relate to the horses chances of winning a race and therefore don't give punters a fair crack. Bookmakers will have a market percentage coverage(sum of all probabilities) of generally upward of 120%

Whilst we can't necessarily beat that as that is reflected across any bookmaker. We can look to get an edge in other ways.

Slow and Steady wins the race

The system that we offer has about a 10% edge on the market. This would mean that for every 10 units you outlay, you would be making a profit of 1 unit. We focus on being long term profitable, and we aren't concerned with flash in a pan days where we could make 20+ units at the sacrifice of our members long term.

Betfair

Unlike bookmakers Betfair is a Market Exchange platform where you have the ability to back or lay a horse.

Back: When you place a bet on a horse to win a race.

Lay: When you take on the liability of a horse to lose the race.

We play both sides

When you punt with a bookmaker you generally only have the option bet on a horse to win or place, you can't take on the option to

Unlike a traditional bookmaker, we utilise Betfair which is a market exchange where another user takes up the opposing side to our bet.

Laying is what we use to get an edge. So lets say a horse is running around at $4, and we decide to take a Lay on this horse. We take on the liability, if our unit size is $10, we take on the liability of $30 (4x$10) - $10.

How does the system determine which races and selections

The races that we target have a certain criteria it has to meet before selections can even be considered

It will then consider the options within a race and if any of selections meet a criteria we have indentified, then they will be penciled in and assessed again before the race jumps, which means that if certain horses are scratched from the race or prices have moved out of a favourable place it will either pivot selections or can the race all together.

There are a multitude of factors that go into a selection, the system takes into consideration everything from previous runs, price movements, track conditions, form, field sizes and more to determine the selection and weighting of that selection.

This strategy the system uses was built and continues to be improved as the data is fed into a couple different machine learning models to see if it can be enhanced and informed by previous data.